Lifting the Offer: Bitcoin trading analysis for the week of June 29nd, 2015


The past week marked the third straight winning week for the bitcoin market. The price jumped over 4% on news that Greece was moving closer to default and in the process broke $250, a key resistance level. 



Bitcoin By the Numbers


Best Bits from Last Week


Bitcoin Price Recap

The market rose over 4% this past week with minimal influence from Bitcoin-specific news. The recent breakdown in negotiations between the European Commission (the EU’s executive body) and Greek authorities was the key driver behind the price increase.

The distance between the two sides is evident in a recent press release from the European Commission which stated:

“Neither this latest version of the document, nor an outline of a comprehensive deal could be formally finalised and presented to the Eurogroup due to the unilateral decision of the Greek authorities to abandon the process on the evening of 26 June 2015.”  

It was on the aforementioned evening of June 26th that Bitcoin traders began to add long positions in hopes that the breakdown of negotiations and further capital controls within Greece would drive the price of bitcoin higher. Traditional money managers around the globe joined these traders in strategizing around the short-term and long-term fallout from these negotiations and the potential investment opportunity. 

One can assume that the run up in price is driven primarily by bitcoin traders speculating on the events in Greece and not Greek citizens looking to adopt bitcoin as their fallback currency. However, the situations in Cyprus and Greece illuminate bitcoin's inherant value as a decentralized currency solution and could potentially serve as a market driver. 


Bitcoin Trading Week Ahead

The ongoing concern around the bitcoin market's ability to break resistance at $250 was answered in emphatic fashion over the past week. This had been a key resistance level for traders over the past few months as the last time $250 was broken in April, the price dropped all the way down to $215.

This week, traders may find support at $245 with new resistance set at $260, an important level which was tested in early-April. As we enter July, this is a pivotal week that could help set the tone for the third quarter. 


This Week in Bitcoin’s (Limited) History

2013: NYT: Winklevoss Twins Plan First Fund for Bitcoins

2014: WSJ: Tim Draper Is Sole Winner of U.S. Bitcoin Auction


Released every Monday, Lifting the Offer provides market and price analysis to prepare bitcoin traders for the week ahead. Check out the full LTO archive.


Bobby Cho is the Director of the Institutional Client Group at itBit. Previously, Bobby was Vice President of Trading at SecondMarket specializing in trading bitcoin and illiquid asset-backed securities.

Comments? Feedback? Shoot Bobby an email.


*All data current as of 9:00AM EST on 6/29/2015.

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